July 17, 2002

We are looking for the quarterly rate of increase to peak at around a 10% annualized rate during the third quarter. Afterwards, it will decline to a more modest 6% expansion rate by the fourth quarter of this year. The positive quarterly increases will push up the year-over-year rates of change. We are looking for a 6.77% 4Q/4Q increase in industrial production by December 2002. Comparing the current forecast with the previous one, the forecast of a third quarter peak remains intact. The only modification is that the magnitude of the expected increase is a bit lower. (full article attached)

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