April 15, 2009

We estimate a 97.72% probability that the second quarter of 2009 will outperform the trailing four quarter average gain in the index. However as the economy recovers it will become increasingly more difficult for the economy to outperform its trailing 4 quarter growth rate average. The LJE forecast calls for the Industrial Production Index year-over-year, a moving sum of the previous four quarters, to remain steady at a very high level over the next three quarters.

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