December 14, 2009

This quarter, our forecast yields an interesting interpretation that some may consider contrarian and unexpected. We are looking for faster growth and lower inflation than the consensus. Our outlook adds up to a somewhat bullish, single digit nominal stock market outlook over the next twelve months. When the low and possibly negative inflation rate is considered, the real return is likely to approach double digits returns in real terms. The lower than expected inflation rate will be a pleasant surprise for holders of longer term government bonds.

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