April 17, 2002

At the beginning of the year we believed that we were near the bottom of the slowdown. We expected the Industrial Production Index to be 3.73% lower than the previous year but 0.72% higher than the previous quarter. Looking at the numbers, our forecasts were not too far off the mark. Industrial production increased 1.58% on a quarter-over-quarter basis and declined 2.86% year-over-year. The year-over-year rate of change in industrial production is expected to turn positive for the first time since the first quarter of 2001. We expect a 0.59% year-over-year increase for the coming quarter. We are looking for the quarterly rate of increase to peak at around 10% during the third quarter. Afterwards, it will decline to a more modest 7% expansion rate by the fourth quarter of this year. (full article attached)

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