March 21, 2002

The futures markets expectations look for the short and long end of the yield curve to rise approximately 40 basis points between now and the end of the second quarter. Given the markets expectations and the historical variability of the yields, we estimate the likelihood of the long end outperforming the short end of the yield curve to be 1 in 2 during the second quarter. Based on our forecasts, the probability of equity outperforming the fixed income market is estimated to be 77.5%. (full article attached)

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