June 11, 2012

The basic investment proposition is that as the fortunes of one party rise in the polls, the proxy for the investors’ preferences for such an environment will also rise. For example, as the Democrats improve their overall standing and the chances for a Democratic sweep increase, we would then expect to see the likelihood of extending the Bush tax rates diminish and, as a result, we would look for the dividend-intensive stocks to underperform the capital gains-intensive stocks. An improvement in the Republican chances of a sweep would produce the opposite results.

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