February 08, 2002

The S&P 500 was down for the month of January and the AFC won the Super Bowl. January marked the 19th time in 50 years that the markets have delivered negative returns during the first month of the year. Looking back we found that during 11 of those years, the market ended the year on a negative note, declining an average of 13.11%. Adjusting for inflation adds four more years to the tally. The frequency of the joint negative returns suggests that it is more than coincidence. Taken at face value the historical data suggests that there is an 83% chance of a down year. If the bears have their way, it would be the first time since 1940-43 that the market has declined three consecutive years. Before conceding the year to the bears, we decided to take a closer look at the data. (full article attached)

You must have an active account to view these reports. You may register for a trial here

Download Complete Report in PDF Format

Download Complete Report in Word Format